[Discussioni] Il Sw libero ha gonfiato le stime sull'entitá del sw copiato illegalmente?

[Paolo Redaelli]

Piracy and free software not always counted
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/07/20/1026898931824.html
 By Nathan Cochrane
July 23 2002
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A flaw in the way annual software usage statistics are compiled may have
led to legal distribution of open-source programs being lumped with
illegal trafficking in desktop applications, inflating losses to
industry through "phantom" piracy.

The annual software piracy statistics - published by trade groups the US
Business Software Association (BSA) and Business Software Association of
Australia (BSAA) - are compiled from several sources but none take into
account the growing use of open-source desktop applications.

The figures are potent weapons in a public relations war to chide users
into registering software, lobby governments for stricter enforcement of
intellectual property laws and to justify harsher legal penalties.

Piracy has become an increasing problem with the spread of broadband
networks and software, such as Napster and KaZaA, that allow users to
easily share digital content such as software, music and video.

The BSAA estimated that software piracy in Australia fell nearly 6 per
cent last year, to $US91 million (about $165 million), as about one in
four software programs were illegally obtained. Globally, it says,
software piracy fell $US1 billion to $10.97 billion due to a "decline in
software prices making the benefits of original software more compelling
against the risks of software piracy and the effects of a worldwide
economic slowdown", the groups say.

They did not include the spread of open-source software as a factor. It
is likely that open-source software, that can be legally copied and
distributed free, follows a similar trajectory to pirated copyright
material - one person downloads a program and gives copies to friends.
But, because open source is legal, it is often distributed on the cover
CDs of popular computer magazines, accelerating its spread into
business, government and homes.

Although use of open-source desktop applications may be comparatively
small, its predicted increase may undermine the accuracy of future
piracy surveys.

Con Zymaris, chief executive of Melbourne consultancy CyberSource, says
heavy-handed enforcement by the BSAA and its members drives users into
the arms of open-source applications. Smaller users especially are
reluctant to spend $1000 - the cost of an entry-level PC - on software.

"Increasingly, with the activities of the BSAA threatening business, it
boils down to a choice," Zymaris says.

"There's always, in the back of your mind, this question mark and they
can see in Open Office the way to get out of that legal hassle, and they
are doing that increasingly."

He estimates there are 20 million users of Open Office and Sun
Microsystems' Star Office v5.2 open-source productivity suites, which
compete with Microsoft's Office. About three copies of any download are
distributed to friends, making it difficult to gauge exact usage, he
says.

Zymaris believes many magazine CDs would have fallen on barren ground
"and people wouldn't have bothered to install" them.

"Most people don't have broadband so it's hard to get but the fact you
can get it on APC (Australian Personal Computer) is a seller as far as
the magazines are concerned and that will spread its uptake."

APC editor David Flynn says there is no data on how many copies of Open
Office are installed. "In terms of the CD being shared with others, our
readership of 247,000 means one can assume some sharing - or the mag or
pass-on rate of 3.8 - but what proportion of this would apply to the CD
is not known," he says.

The replacement of proprietary software with open-source equivalents is
becoming more common in Europe, where the European Commission has
embarked on a five-year project to reduce its €6.6 billion software bill
by starting an open-source portal to share code between member states.

Enterprises, cheered on by analyst firms such as Gartner which advises
business to consider Star Office for light users, are turning to cheaper
open-source applications to escape high licence fees.

The BSA's and BSAA's study is compiled by US consultancy IPR and based,
in part, on statistics from Metafacts' census of the US PC industry, the
Technology User Profile. In the Metafacts study, PC users are asked what
BSA-member software they use.

"We ask respondents to choose from a very long list of specific software
titles, reporting which ones they regularly use. This means we identify
Microsoft Word versus, say, WordPerfect," says Metafacts principal
analyst Dan Ness.

Open-source competitors are not included as alternatives, he says.

As for open-source applications on the desktop, "we all know it's coming
but the question is when it will come?" says David Fay, IPR's compiler
of the piracy survey for the software associations for six years.

"There's also the recognition that there are some barriers to entry at
the desktop level and support issues are important.

"It's just now, in 2002, that it's starting to get some real efforts
being focused on this so we may see some usage show up where we can
actually measure it."